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Alcantarilla vs Cartagena LU II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Alcantarilla
Alcantarilla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
11/16/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Alcantarilla33%
×Draw28%
Cartagena LU II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcantarilla
1.09
Cartagena LU II
1.20

Cartagena LU II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 51 away

creates per match

Alcantarilla
0.94
Cartagena LU II
1.04

allows per match

Alcantarilla
1.35
Cartagena LU II
1.25

finishing

Alcantarilla+0.00on par
Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcantarilla ↓

Cartagena LU II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alcantarilla or draw
61%
Alcantarilla or Cartagena LU II
72%
Draw or Cartagena LU II
67%

Winning margin

Alcantarilla wins by 2+
13%
Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Alcantarilla 1+ goals
66%
Alcantarilla 2+ goals
30%
Alcantarilla 3+ goals
10%
Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
70%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
34%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alcantarilla (draw refunded)
46%
Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcantarilla at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Cartagena LU II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcantarilla attack 0.94 + Cartagena LU II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Cartagena LU II attack 1.04 + Alcantarilla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alcantarilla scores more
33%
level
28%
Cartagena LU II scores more
39%

Cartagena LU II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcantarilla 1 – 2 Cartagena LU II

Cartagena LU II beat Alcantarilla 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero in Alcantarilla.