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Alcantarilla vs Bullense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Alcantarilla
Alcantarilla
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bullense
Bullense
3/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 26Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Alcantarilla48%
×Draw26%
Bullense26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcantarilla
1.53
Bullense
1.06

Alcantarilla creates 44% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 79 away

creates per match

Alcantarilla
0.94
Bullense
0.78

allows per match

Alcantarilla
1.35
Bullense
2.13

finishing

Alcantarilla+0.00on par
Bullense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcantarilla ↓

Bullense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alcantarilla or draw
74%
Alcantarilla or Bullense
74%
Draw or Bullense
52%

Winning margin

Alcantarilla wins by 2+
24%
Bullense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alcantarilla 1+ goals
78%
Alcantarilla 2+ goals
45%
Alcantarilla 3+ goals
20%
Bullense 1+ goals
65%
Bullense 2+ goals
29%
Bullense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alcantarilla (draw refunded)
65%
Bullense (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcantarilla at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Bullense away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcantarilla attack 0.94 + Bullense defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

Bullense attack 0.78 + Alcantarilla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alcantarilla scores more
48%
level
26%
Bullense scores more
26%

Alcantarilla at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alcantarilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Alcantarilla 3–1 Bullense

Alcantarilla beat Bullense 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero in Alcantarilla.