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Alcantarilla vs Bala Azul — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Alcantarilla
Alcantarilla
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bala Azul
Bala Azul
10/19/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 7Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Alcantarilla36%
×Draw29%
Bala Azul36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcantarilla
1.13
Bala Azul
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 51 away

creates per match

Alcantarilla
0.94
Bala Azul
0.90

allows per match

Alcantarilla
1.35
Bala Azul
1.31

finishing

Alcantarilla+0.00on par
Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcantarilla ↓

Bala Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alcantarilla or draw
64%
Alcantarilla or Bala Azul
71%
Draw or Bala Azul
64%

Winning margin

Alcantarilla wins by 2+
15%
Bala Azul wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Alcantarilla 1+ goals
68%
Alcantarilla 2+ goals
31%
Alcantarilla 3+ goals
11%
Bala Azul 1+ goals
68%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
31%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alcantarilla (draw refunded)
50%
Bala Azul (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcantarilla at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcantarilla attack 0.94 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + Alcantarilla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Alcantarilla scores more
36%
level
29%
Bala Azul scores more
36%

Alcantarilla at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Alcantarilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcantarilla vs Bala Azul

Bala Azul beat Alcantarilla 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero in Alcantarilla.