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Alcantarilla vs Águilas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Alcantarilla
Alcantarilla
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Águilas II
Águilas II
5/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Alcantarilla30%
×Draw29%
Águilas II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcantarilla
0.98
Águilas II
1.19

Águilas II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 34 away

creates per match

Alcantarilla
0.94
Águilas II
1.03

allows per match

Alcantarilla
1.35
Águilas II
1.03

finishing

Alcantarilla+0.00on par
Águilas II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcantarilla ↓

Águilas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alcantarilla or draw
59%
Alcantarilla or Águilas II
71%
Draw or Águilas II
70%

Winning margin

Alcantarilla wins by 2+
11%
Águilas II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Alcantarilla 1+ goals
62%
Alcantarilla 2+ goals
26%
Alcantarilla 3+ goals
8%
Águilas II 1+ goals
70%
Águilas II 2+ goals
33%
Águilas II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alcantarilla (draw refunded)
43%
Águilas II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcantarilla at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Águilas II away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcantarilla attack 0.94 + Águilas II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Águilas II attack 1.03 + Alcantarilla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alcantarilla scores more
30%
level
29%
Águilas II scores more
41%

Águilas II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Águilas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcantarilla 2 – 1 Águilas II

Alcantarilla beat Águilas II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero in Alcantarilla.