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Alcantarilla vs Águilas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Alcantarilla
Alcantarilla
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Águilas
Águilas
9/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Alcantarilla24%
×Draw30%
Águilas46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcantarilla
0.81
Águilas
1.23

Águilas creates 52% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 42 away

creates per match

Alcantarilla
0.94
Águilas
1.10

allows per match

Alcantarilla
1.35
Águilas
0.69

finishing

Alcantarilla+0.00on par
Águilas+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcantarilla ↓

Águilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Alcantarilla or draw
54%
Alcantarilla or Águilas
70%
Draw or Águilas
76%

Winning margin

Alcantarilla wins by 2+
8%
Águilas wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Alcantarilla 1+ goals
56%
Alcantarilla 2+ goals
19%
Alcantarilla 3+ goals
5%
Águilas 1+ goals
71%
Águilas 2+ goals
35%
Águilas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Alcantarilla (draw refunded)
35%
Águilas (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcantarilla at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Águilas away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcantarilla attack 0.94 + Águilas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.81

Águilas attack 1.10 + Alcantarilla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alcantarilla scores more
24%
level
30%
Águilas scores more
46%

Águilas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcantarilla vs Águilas

Águilas beat Alcantarilla 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero in Alcantarilla.