Alcains 1–1 Vitória de Sernache: Result & Stats

Alcains

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vitória de Sernache

11/8/2020

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 6Estádio Trigueiros do Aragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Alcains38%

×Draw26%

Vitória de Sernache36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcainsExpected goals in this matchVitória de Sernache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.32

Alcains

1.36

Vitória de Sernache

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.82

creates per match

1.55

1.09

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Alcains

0.82

Vitória de Sernache

1.55

allows per match

Alcains

1.09

Vitória de Sernache

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcains+0.00on par

Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcains ↓

Vitória de Sernache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alcains or draw

64%

Alcains or Vitória de Sernache

74%

Draw or Vitória de Sernache

62%

Winning margin

Alcains wins by 2+

17%

Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Alcains 1+ goals

74%

Alcains 2+ goals

39%

Alcains 3+ goals

16%

Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals

73%

Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals

38%

Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Alcains (draw refunded)

51%

Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcains at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Vitória de Sernache away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcains attack 0.82 + Vitória de Sernache defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.36

Vitória de Sernache attack 1.55 + Alcains defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alcains scores more

38%

level

26%

Vitória de Sernache scores more

36%

Alcains at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alcains will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff