Alcains 1–1 Marinhense: Result & Stats

Alcains

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Marinhense

2/14/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 16Estádio Trigueiros do Aragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Alcains34%

×Draw30%

Marinhense36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcainsExpected goals in this matchMarinhense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.09

Alcains

1.04

Marinhense

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.82

creates per match

1.09

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Alcains

0.82

Marinhense

1.09

allows per match

Alcains

1.09

Marinhense

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcains+0.00on par

Marinhense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcains ↓

Marinhense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alcains or draw

64%

Alcains or Marinhense

70%

Draw or Marinhense

66%

Winning margin

Alcains wins by 2+

13%

Marinhense wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Alcains 1+ goals

65%

Alcains 2+ goals

28%

Alcains 3+ goals

9%

Marinhense 1+ goals

66%

Marinhense 2+ goals

30%

Marinhense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alcains (draw refunded)

48%

Marinhense (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcains at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Marinhense away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcains attack 0.82 + Marinhense defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Marinhense attack 1.09 + Alcains defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Alcains scores more

34%

level

30%

Marinhense scores more

36%

Marinhense at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Marinhense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff