Albuquerque Sol 1–2 Park City Red Wolves

Albuquerque Sol

FT

1 – 2

Park City Red Wolves

6/23/2019

USL League Two · Round 1St. Pius X High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Albuquerque Sol33%

×Draw24%

Park City Red Wolves44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albuquerque SolExpected goals in this matchPark City Red Wolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.68

Albuquerque Sol

1.42

Park City Red Wolves

1.68

Park City Red Wolves creates 18% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 22 away

1.25

creates per match

1.86

1.50

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Albuquerque Sol

1.25

Park City Red Wolves

1.86

allows per match

Albuquerque Sol

1.50

Park City Red Wolves

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albuquerque Sol+0.00on par

Park City Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albuquerque Sol ↓

Park City Red Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Albuquerque Sol or draw

56%

Albuquerque Sol or Park City Red Wolves

76%

Draw or Park City Red Wolves

67%

Winning margin

Albuquerque Sol wins by 2+

15%

Park City Red Wolves wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Albuquerque Sol 1+ goals

76%

Albuquerque Sol 2+ goals

41%

Albuquerque Sol 3+ goals

17%

Park City Red Wolves 1+ goals

81%

Park City Red Wolves 2+ goals

50%

Park City Red Wolves 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Albuquerque Sol (draw refunded)

43%

Park City Red Wolves (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albuquerque Sol at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Park City Red Wolves away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albuquerque Sol attack 1.25 + Park City Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Park City Red Wolves attack 1.86 + Albuquerque Sol defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Albuquerque Sol scores more

33%

level

24%

Park City Red Wolves scores more

44%

Park City Red Wolves at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Park City Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff