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Albirex Niigata vs Yokohama FC — J1 League 2018

Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
4/13/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 10Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Albirex Niigata45%
×Draw25%
Yokohama FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata
1.52
Yokohama FC
1.18

Albirex Niigata creates 29% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 72 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata
1.18
Yokohama FC
0.78

allows per match

Albirex Niigata
1.57
Yokohama FC
1.85

finishing

Albirex Niigata+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw
70%
Albirex Niigata or Yokohama FC
75%
Draw or Yokohama FC
55%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
22%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
78%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
45%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
20%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
69%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
33%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
60%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.18 + Yokohama FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

Yokohama FC attack 0.78 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more
45%
level
25%
Yokohama FC scores more
30%

Albirex Niigata at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albirex Niigata vs Yokohama FC

Albirex Niigata and Yokohama FC drew 0-0 in J1 League on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata.