Albirex Niigata 1–1 Renofa Yamaguchi

Albirex Niigata

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Renofa Yamaguchi

3/5/2022

J2 League · Round 3Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Albirex Niigata48%

×Draw26%

Renofa Yamaguchi26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albirex NiigataExpected goals in this matchRenofa Yamaguchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.03

Albirex Niigata

1.51

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.03

Albirex Niigata creates 47% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 168 away

1.52

creates per match

0.98

1.08

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Albirex Niigata

1.52

Renofa Yamaguchi

0.98

allows per match

Albirex Niigata

1.08

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albirex Niigata+0.00on par

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw

74%

Albirex Niigata or Renofa Yamaguchi

74%

Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi

52%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

24%

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

78%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

44%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

19%

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals

64%

Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals

28%

Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

65%

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 105 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.52 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.51

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more

48%

level

26%

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more

26%

Albirex Niigata at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff