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Albirex Niigata vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League 2018

Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
3/9/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 3Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Albirex Niigata35%
×Draw26%
Nagoya Grampus39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata
1.29
Nagoya Grampus
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 148 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata
1.18
Nagoya Grampus
1.16

allows per match

Albirex Niigata
1.57
Nagoya Grampus
1.41

finishing

Albirex Niigata+0.00on par
Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Nagoya Grampus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw
61%
Albirex Niigata or Nagoya Grampus
74%
Draw or Nagoya Grampus
65%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
15%
Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
72%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
37%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
14%
Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
74%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
39%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
48%
Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.41 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.18 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.16 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more
35%
level
26%
Nagoya Grampus scores more
39%

Nagoya Grampus at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albirex Niigata vs Nagoya Grampus

Albirex Niigata beat Nagoya Grampus 1-0 in J1 League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata.