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Albirex Niigata vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
6/29/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 22Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Albirex Niigata27%
×Draw26%
Machida Zelvia47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata
1.05
Machida Zelvia
1.48

Machida Zelvia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 43 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata
1.18
Machida Zelvia
1.40

allows per match

Albirex Niigata
1.57
Machida Zelvia
0.93

finishing

Albirex Niigata+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw
53%
Albirex Niigata or Machida Zelvia
74%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
73%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
10%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
65%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
28%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
9%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
77%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
43%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
36%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.18 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more
27%
level
26%
Machida Zelvia scores more
47%

Machida Zelvia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Albirex Niigata 0–4 Machida Zelvia

Machida Zelvia beat Albirex Niigata 4-0 in J1 League on June 29, 2025.

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata.