Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Albion San Diego W vs LA Surf — League #1116 2026

Albion San Diego W
Albion San Diego W
FT
1 – 0
LA Surf
LA Surf
5/26/2025League #1116League #1116 · West - 3Mission Bay High School Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Albion San Diego W35%
×Draw26%
LA Surf39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion San Diego W
1.31
LA Surf
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Albion San Diego W
0.75
LA Surf
1.00

allows per match

Albion San Diego W
1.75
LA Surf
1.88

finishing

Albion San Diego W+0.00on par
LA Surf+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion San Diego W ↓

LA Surf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Albion San Diego W or draw
61%
Albion San Diego W or LA Surf
74%
Draw or LA Surf
65%

Winning margin

Albion San Diego W wins by 2+
16%
LA Surf wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Albion San Diego W 1+ goals
73%
Albion San Diego W 2+ goals
38%
Albion San Diego W 3+ goals
14%
LA Surf 1+ goals
75%
LA Surf 2+ goals
40%
LA Surf 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Albion San Diego W (draw refunded)
48%
LA Surf (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion San Diego W at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

LA Surf away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion San Diego W attack 0.75 + LA Surf defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.31

LA Surf attack 1.00 + Albion San Diego W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Albion San Diego W scores more
35%
level
26%
LA Surf scores more
39%

LA Surf at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "LA Surf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albion San Diego W vs LA Surf

Albion San Diego W beat LA Surf 1-0 in League #1116 on May 26, 2025.

The match was played at Mission Bay High School Field in San Diego, California.