Albion San Diego W 1–0 Beach W: Result & Stats

Albion San Diego W

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Beach W

6/23/2025

League #1116

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Albion San Diego W20%

×Draw20%

Beach W60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion San Diego WExpected goals in this matchBeach W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.21

Albion San Diego W

1.21

Beach W

2.21

Beach W creates 83% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.75

creates per match

2.67

1.75

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Albion San Diego W

0.75

Beach W

2.67

allows per match

Albion San Diego W

1.75

Beach W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion San Diego W+0.00on par

Beach W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion San Diego W ↓

Beach W →

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Albion San Diego W or draw

40%

Albion San Diego W or Beach W

80%

Draw or Beach W

80%

Winning margin

Albion San Diego W wins by 2+

Beach W wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Albion San Diego W 1+ goals

70%

Albion San Diego W 2+ goals

34%

Albion San Diego W 3+ goals

12%

Beach W 1+ goals

89%

Beach W 2+ goals

65%

Beach W 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Albion San Diego W (draw refunded)

25%

Beach W (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Albion San Diego W at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Beach W away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Albion San Diego W attack 0.75 + Beach W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Beach W attack 2.67 + Albion San Diego W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Albion San Diego W scores more

20%

level

20%

Beach W scores more

60%

Beach W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Beach W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff