Albion Rovers 0–2 Partick: Result & Stats

Albion Rovers

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Partick

A. Fitzpatrick 83'

M. Storey 59'

7/24/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 6Exsel Group Stadium (Coatbridge)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Albion Rovers20%

×Draw19%

Partick61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion RoversExpected goals in this matchPartick

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.42

Albion Rovers

1.33

Partick

2.42

Partick creates 82% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

2.07

2.78

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Albion Rovers

1.00

Partick

2.07

allows per match

Albion Rovers

2.78

Partick

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Partick+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Partick →

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw

39%

Albion Rovers or Partick

81%

Draw or Partick

80%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

Partick wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

74%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

38%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

15%

Partick 1+ goals

91%

Partick 2+ goals

69%

Partick 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

25%

Partick (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

Partick away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 1.00 + Partick defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Partick attack 2.07 + Albion Rovers defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Albion Rovers scores more

20%

level

19%

Partick scores more

61%

Partick at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Partick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

M. Storey

63'

L. McMahon← J. Gallagher

67'

G. Fisher← R. Watters

71'

B. Wharton← S. Smith

71'

A. Fitzpatrick← J. Storer

81'

A. McCarthy← K. Doolan

83'

A. Fitzpatrick

Albion

Partick

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Brogan

63'▲L. McMahon←▼J. Gallagher

67'▲G. Fisher←▼R. Watters

71'▲B. Wharton←▼S. Smith

Albion Rovers substitutes

18McMahon19Fisher15Wharton12Cunningham17Hallford16Greene14Watson

Manager: A. Archibald

71'▲A. Fitzpatrick←▼J. Storer

81'▲A. McCarthy←▼K. Doolan

Partick substitutes

21Fitzpatrick16McCarthy20Wilson5Keown23Sneddon