Albion Rovers 1–1 Fort William: Result & Stats

Albion Rovers

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fort William

J. Breen 33'

G. Hastings 80'

10/19/2019

FA Cup · 2nd RoundThe Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Albion Rovers54%

×Draw23%

Fort William23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion RoversExpected goals in this matchFort William

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.15

Albion Rovers

1.88

Fort William

1.15

Albion Rovers creates 63% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

0.75

creates per match

0.67

1.63

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Albion Rovers

0.75

Fort William

0.67

allows per match

Albion Rovers

1.63

Fort William

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Fort William+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Fort William →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw

77%

Albion Rovers or Fort William

77%

Draw or Fort William

46%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

31%

Fort William wins by 2+

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

85%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

56%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

29%

Fort William 1+ goals

68%

Fort William 2+ goals

32%

Fort William 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

70%

Fort William (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Fort William away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 0.75 + Fort William defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Fort William attack 0.67 + Albion Rovers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Albion Rovers scores more

54%

level

23%

Fort William scores more

23%

Albion Rovers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Albion Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

J. Breen↳ S. Osadolor

59'

J. Stewart← G. Morena

64'

I. MacLellan← R. Nevison

72'

D. Scally← D. Byrne

79'

E. East← S. Osadolor

80'

G. Hastings↳ R. Gunn

Albion

Fort

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: K. Harper

59'▲J. Stewart←▼G. Morena

72'▲D. Scally←▼D. Byrne

79'▲E. East←▼S. Osadolor

Albion Rovers substitutes

16Stewart14Scally12East17Smith15Roberts19Fagan18Phillips

Manager: R. MacMorran

64'▲I. MacLellan←▼R. Nevison

Fort William substitutes

18MacLellan17MacDonald16Wilson19Gilchrist14Knowles15Henderson12Farrance