Albion Rovers 0–1 Forfar Athletic: Result & Stats

Albion Rovers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Forfar Athletic

F. Robson 62'

1/28/2023

League Two · Round 22The Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Albion Rovers32%

×Draw27%

Forfar Athletic41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion RoversExpected goals in this matchForfar Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.31

Albion Rovers

1.12

Forfar Athletic

1.31

Forfar Athletic creates 17% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 90 away

1.05

creates per match

1.03

1.60

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Albion Rovers

1.05

Forfar Athletic

1.03

allows per match

Albion Rovers

1.60

Forfar Athletic

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Forfar Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw

59%

Albion Rovers or Forfar Athletic

73%

Draw or Forfar Athletic

68%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

13%

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

67%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

31%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

10%

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals

73%

Forfar Athletic 2+ goals

38%

Forfar Athletic 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

44%

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.60 · 78 matches

Forfar Athletic away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.19 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 1.05 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.12

Forfar Athletic attack 1.03 + Albion Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Albion Rovers scores more

32%

level

27%

Forfar Athletic scores more

41%

Forfar Athletic at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Forfar Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

31'

62'

67'

68'

M. Aitken← C. Thomson

76'

S. Roberts← J. Bevan

77'

M. Gillies← B. Armour

78'

D. Watson← N. Flanagan

81'

Callum Moore← R. Nditi

85'

M. Wright← L. Graham

86'

K. Hutton

Albion

Forfar

1

McCallum

5

Docherty

19

Munro

2

▼

Nditi

25

Hutchinso

6

Hutton

7

▼

Thomson

33

▼

Flanagan

14

Ross

16

⚽

Robson

17

▼

1

4

2

12

22

▼

3

7

11

6

8

14

▼

Bevan

Manager: B. Reid

76'▲S. Roberts←▼J. Bevan

85'▲M. Wright←▼L. Graham

Albion Rovers substitutes

9Roberts19Wright23Cairney-Smith16Duncan17Smith18Dolan15McColl

Manager: R. McKinnon

68'▲M. Aitken←▼C. Thomson

77'▲M. Gillies←▼B. Armour

78'▲D. Watson←▼N. Flanagan

81'▲Callum Moore←▼R. Nditi

Forfar Athletic substitutes

9Aitken26Gillies24Watson12Moore31Kennedy3Brindley8Jack