Albion Rovers 2–1 Edinburgh City: Result & Stats

Albion Rovers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Edinburgh City

7/27/2019

League Cup · Group Stage - 8The Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Albion Rovers46%

×Draw22%

Edinburgh City33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion RoversExpected goals in this matchEdinburgh City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.66

Albion Rovers

2.00

Edinburgh City

1.66

Albion Rovers creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

0.54

2.78

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Albion Rovers

1.00

Edinburgh City

0.54

allows per match

Albion Rovers

2.78

Edinburgh City

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Edinburgh City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw

67%

Albion Rovers or Edinburgh City

78%

Draw or Edinburgh City

54%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

26%

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

86%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

59%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

32%

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

81%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

49%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

59%

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

Edinburgh City away — creates 0.54, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 1.00 + Edinburgh City defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Edinburgh City attack 0.54 + Albion Rovers defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Albion Rovers scores more

46%

level

22%

Edinburgh City scores more

33%

Albion Rovers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Albion Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff