Albion Rovers 0–1 Cowdenbeath: Result & Stats

Albion Rovers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cowdenbeath

F. Mullen 9' (pen)

1/29/2022

League Two · Round 23The Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Albion Rovers37%

×Draw27%

Cowdenbeath36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion RoversExpected goals in this matchCowdenbeath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.24

Albion Rovers

1.25

Cowdenbeath

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 60 away

1.05

creates per match

0.88

1.60

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Albion Rovers

1.05

Cowdenbeath

0.88

allows per match

Albion Rovers

1.60

Cowdenbeath

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Cowdenbeath →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw

64%

Albion Rovers or Cowdenbeath

73%

Draw or Cowdenbeath

63%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

16%

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

71%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

36%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

13%

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

71%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

35%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

50%

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.60 · 78 matches

Cowdenbeath away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.45 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 1.05 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cowdenbeath attack 0.88 + Albion Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Albion Rovers scores more

37%

level

27%

Cowdenbeath scores more

36%

Albion Rovers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Albion Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

C. Reilly

9'

F. MullenPenalty

12'

19'

22'

25'

46'

61'

K. Doherty← M. Wright

64'

S. Fagan

70'

D. Byrne← J. Jack

71'

S. Roberts← C. Reilly

71'

B. Malcolm← J. Leslie

76'

D. Carty← B. Barr

80'

R. Buchanan

84'

K. Miller

90'

H. Swann← J. Moore

Albion

Cowdenbeath

1

Gill

5

Barr

2

Thomson

3

⚽

Mullen

4

Todd

6

Denham

9

▼

Barr

8

Morrison

7

Miller

11

▼

10

1

4

3

2

8

7

5

11

▼

Reilly

6

▼

Leslie

10

▼

Wright

9

▼

Jack

Manager: B. Reid

61'▲K. Doherty←▼M. Wright

70'▲D. Byrne←▼J. Jack

71'▲S. Roberts←▼C. Reilly

71'▲B. Malcolm←▼J. Leslie

Albion Rovers substitutes

20Doherty14Byrne16Roberts12Malcolm21A15McVey18Dolan19Fernie17Stone

Manager: M. Ross

46'▲J. Moore←▼Q. Coulson

76'▲D. Carty←▼B. Barr

90'▲H. Swann←▼J. Moore

Cowdenbeath substitutes

18Moore16Carty14Swann19Buchanan15Glass17McDowall12Clarke20Renton