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Albion Rovers vs Cove Rangers — League Two 2018

Albion Rovers
Albion Rovers
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
2/1/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 23The Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Albion Rovers26%
×Draw21%
Cove Rangers53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion Rovers
1.49
Cove Rangers
2.20

Cove Rangers creates 48% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 14 away

creates per match

Albion Rovers
1.05
Cove Rangers
2.79

allows per match

Albion Rovers
1.60
Cove Rangers
1.93

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par
Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Cove Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw
47%
Albion Rovers or Cove Rangers
79%
Draw or Cove Rangers
74%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+
12%
Cove Rangers wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals
77%
Albion Rovers 2+ goals
44%
Albion Rovers 3+ goals
19%
Cove Rangers 1+ goals
89%
Cove Rangers 2+ goals
64%
Cove Rangers 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)
33%
Cove Rangers (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.60 · 78 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 1.05 + Cove Rangers defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.49

Cove Rangers attack 2.79 + Albion Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Albion Rovers scores more
26%
level
21%
Cove Rangers scores more
53%

Cove Rangers at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albion Rovers vs Cove Rangers

Albion Rovers and Cove Rangers drew 2-2 in League Two on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at The Reigart Stadium in Coatbridge.