Albion Rovers 0–3 Buckie Thistle: Result & Stats

Albion Rovers

0 – 3

Buckie Thistle

12/26/2020

FA Cup · 1st RoundThe Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Albion Rovers25%

×Draw25%

Buckie Thistle50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion RoversExpected goals in this matchBuckie Thistle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.63

Albion Rovers

1.09

Buckie Thistle

1.63

Buckie Thistle creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

0.75

creates per match

1.64

1.63

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Albion Rovers

0.75

Buckie Thistle

1.64

allows per match

Albion Rovers

1.63

Buckie Thistle

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Buckie Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Buckie Thistle →

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw

50%

Albion Rovers or Buckie Thistle

75%

Draw or Buckie Thistle

75%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

10%

Buckie Thistle wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

66%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

30%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

10%

Buckie Thistle 1+ goals

80%

Buckie Thistle 2+ goals

48%

Buckie Thistle 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

34%

Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Buckie Thistle away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 0.75 + Buckie Thistle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.09

Buckie Thistle attack 1.64 + Albion Rovers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Albion Rovers scores more

25%

level

25%

Buckie Thistle scores more

50%

Buckie Thistle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Buckie Thistle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff