Albion Rovers 1–0 Brora Rangers: Result & Stats

Albion Rovers

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brora Rangers

D. Wilson 83' (pen)

10/30/2021

FA Cup · 2nd Round ReplaysThe Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Albion Rovers12%

×Draw19%

Brora Rangers69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion RoversExpected goals in this matchBrora Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

2.10

Albion Rovers

0.73

Brora Rangers

2.10

Brora Rangers creates 188% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

0.75

creates per match

2.57

1.63

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Albion Rovers

0.75

Brora Rangers

2.57

allows per match

Albion Rovers

1.63

Brora Rangers

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Brora Rangers →

0–06%

0–112%

0–213%

0–39%

0–45%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw

31%

Albion Rovers or Brora Rangers

81%

Draw or Brora Rangers

88%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

Brora Rangers wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

52%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

17%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

Brora Rangers 1+ goals

88%

Brora Rangers 2+ goals

62%

Brora Rangers 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

15%

Brora Rangers (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Brora Rangers away — creates 2.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 0.75 + Brora Rangers defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Brora Rangers attack 2.57 + Albion Rovers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Albion Rovers scores more

12%

level

19%

Brora Rangers scores more

69%

Brora Rangers at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Brora Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Wright← J. Meekings

63'

C. Reilly← J. Morton

63'

C. O'Donnell← M. Wright

71'

K. Doherty

72'

A. Macrae← J. MacRae

81'

H. Hennem← J. Pickles

83'

D. WilsonPenalty

Albion

Brora

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: B. Reid

63'▲C. Reilly←▼J. Morton

63'▲C. O'Donnell←▼M. Wright

Albion Rovers substitutes

18Reilly12O'Donnell19McVey16Dolan17Smith14Robinson15Mullen

Manager: C. Campbell

46'▲M. Wright←▼J. Meekings

72'▲A. Macrae←▼J. MacRae

81'▲H. Hennem←▼J. Pickles

Brora Rangers substitutes

18Wright12Macrae17Hennem14Sutherland16Gamble20Stephen15Ewan

FA Cup: Albion Rovers 1–0 Brora Rangers

Albion Rovers beat Brora Rangers 1-0 in FA Cup on October 30, 2021.

Goals: D. Wilson (83' pen).

The match was played at The Reigart Stadium in Coatbridge.

Albion Rovers vs Brora Rangers — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Albion Rovers 1–0 Brora Rangers