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Albion Rovers vs Auchinleck Talbot — FA Cup 2019

Albion Rovers
Albion Rovers
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Auchinleck Talbot
Auchinleck Talbot
Nimmo 25'
9/28/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundThe Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Albion Rovers14%
×Draw19%
Auchinleck Talbot68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion Rovers
0.92
Auchinleck Talbot
2.27

Auchinleck Talbot creates 147% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Albion Rovers
0.75
Auchinleck Talbot
2.92

allows per match

Albion Rovers
1.63
Auchinleck Talbot
1.08

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par
Auchinleck Talbot+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Auchinleck Talbot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw
32%
Albion Rovers or Auchinleck Talbot
81%
Draw or Auchinleck Talbot
86%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+
4%
Auchinleck Talbot wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals
60%
Albion Rovers 2+ goals
23%
Albion Rovers 3+ goals
7%
Auchinleck Talbot 1+ goals
90%
Auchinleck Talbot 2+ goals
66%
Auchinleck Talbot 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)
17%
Auchinleck Talbot (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Auchinleck Talbot away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 0.75 + Auchinleck Talbot defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Auchinleck Talbot attack 2.92 + Albion Rovers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Albion Rovers scores more
14%
level
19%
Auchinleck Talbot scores more
68%

Auchinleck Talbot at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Auchinleck Talbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Nimmo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albion Rovers vs Auchinleck Talbot

Auchinleck Talbot beat Albion Rovers 2-1 in FA Cup on September 28, 2024.

Goals: Nimmo (25').

The match was played at The Reigart Stadium in Coatbridge.