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Albion FC vs Wanderers — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Albion FC
Albion FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wanderers
Wanderers
6/18/2022Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 2Parque Federico Omar Saroldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Albion FC48%
×Draw24%
Wanderers27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion FC
1.64
Wanderers
1.17

Albion FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

creates per match

Albion FC
1.75
Wanderers
1.00

allows per match

Albion FC
1.33
Wanderers
1.52

finishing

Albion FC+0.00on par
Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion FC ↓

Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Albion FC or draw
73%
Albion FC or Wanderers
76%
Draw or Wanderers
52%

Winning margin

Albion FC wins by 2+
25%
Wanderers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Albion FC 1+ goals
81%
Albion FC 2+ goals
49%
Albion FC 3+ goals
23%
Wanderers 1+ goals
69%
Wanderers 2+ goals
33%
Wanderers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Albion FC (draw refunded)
64%
Wanderers (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Wanderers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion FC attack 1.75 + Wanderers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Wanderers attack 1.00 + Albion FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Albion FC scores more
48%
level
24%
Wanderers scores more
27%

Albion FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Albion FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albion FC vs Wanderers

Albion FC and Wanderers drew 1-1 in Primera División - Apertura on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Parque Federico Omar Saroldi in Montevideo.