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Albion Colorado vs Utah Avalanche — USL League Two 2018

Albion Colorado
Albion Colorado
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Utah Avalanche
Utah Avalanche
7/14/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 20Fairview High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Albion Colorado48%
×Draw24%
Utah Avalanche27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion Colorado
1.67
Utah Avalanche
1.20

Albion Colorado creates 39% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

Albion Colorado
1.83
Utah Avalanche
1.33

allows per match

Albion Colorado
1.06
Utah Avalanche
1.50

finishing

Albion Colorado+0.00on par
Utah Avalanche+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Colorado ↓

Utah Avalanche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Albion Colorado or draw
73%
Albion Colorado or Utah Avalanche
76%
Draw or Utah Avalanche
52%

Winning margin

Albion Colorado wins by 2+
26%
Utah Avalanche wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Albion Colorado 1+ goals
81%
Albion Colorado 2+ goals
50%
Albion Colorado 3+ goals
23%
Utah Avalanche 1+ goals
70%
Utah Avalanche 2+ goals
34%
Utah Avalanche 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Albion Colorado (draw refunded)
64%
Utah Avalanche (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Colorado at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Utah Avalanche away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Colorado attack 1.83 + Utah Avalanche defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Utah Avalanche attack 1.33 + Albion Colorado defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Albion Colorado scores more
48%
level
24%
Utah Avalanche scores more
27%

Albion Colorado at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Albion Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Albion Colorado 0 – 1 Utah Avalanche

Utah Avalanche beat Albion Colorado 1-0 in USL League Two on July 14, 2024.

The match was played at Fairview High School Stadium in Boulder, Colorado.