Albion Colorado 2–1 New Mexico United II

Albion Colorado

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

New Mexico United II

5/31/2024

USL League Two · Western Conference - 5Fairview High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Albion Colorado45%

×Draw24%

New Mexico United II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion ColoradoExpected goals in this matchNew Mexico United II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.39

Albion Colorado

1.70

New Mexico United II

1.39

Albion Colorado creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.83

creates per match

1.72

1.06

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Albion Colorado

1.83

New Mexico United II

1.72

allows per match

Albion Colorado

1.06

New Mexico United II

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion Colorado+0.00on par

New Mexico United II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Colorado ↓

New Mexico United II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Albion Colorado or draw

68%

Albion Colorado or New Mexico United II

76%

Draw or New Mexico United II

55%

Winning margin

Albion Colorado wins by 2+

24%

New Mexico United II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Albion Colorado 1+ goals

82%

Albion Colorado 2+ goals

51%

Albion Colorado 3+ goals

24%

New Mexico United II 1+ goals

75%

New Mexico United II 2+ goals

40%

New Mexico United II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Albion Colorado (draw refunded)

59%

New Mexico United II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Colorado at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

New Mexico United II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Colorado attack 1.83 + New Mexico United II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.70

New Mexico United II attack 1.72 + Albion Colorado defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Albion Colorado scores more

45%

level

24%

New Mexico United II scores more

32%

Albion Colorado at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Albion Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff