AlbinoLeffe U19 1–0 Parma U19: Result & Stats

AlbinoLeffe U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Parma U19

11/11/2023

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 8Stadio Giacinto Facchetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

AlbinoLeffe U1930%

×Draw22%

Parma U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbinoLeffe U19Expected goals in this matchParma U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.93

AlbinoLeffe U19

1.48

Parma U19

1.93

Parma U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 70 away

1.92

creates per match

2.00

1.85

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

AlbinoLeffe U19

1.92

Parma U19

2.00

allows per match

AlbinoLeffe U19

1.85

Parma U19

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AlbinoLeffe U19+0.00on par

Parma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AlbinoLeffe U19 ↓

Parma U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

AlbinoLeffe U19 or draw

52%

AlbinoLeffe U19 or Parma U19

78%

Draw or Parma U19

70%

Winning margin

AlbinoLeffe U19 wins by 2+

14%

Parma U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

AlbinoLeffe U19 1+ goals

77%

AlbinoLeffe U19 2+ goals

43%

AlbinoLeffe U19 3+ goals

19%

Parma U19 1+ goals

85%

Parma U19 2+ goals

57%

Parma U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

AlbinoLeffe U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Parma U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AlbinoLeffe U19 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.85 · 60 matches

Parma U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AlbinoLeffe U19 attack 1.92 + Parma U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.48

Parma U19 attack 2.00 + AlbinoLeffe U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AlbinoLeffe U19 scores more

30%

level

22%

Parma U19 scores more

48%

Parma U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Parma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff