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Alberschwende vs Schruns — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Alberschwende
Alberschwende
CANC
00:00
Schruns
Schruns
5/1/2021Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 24Sportplatz Alberschwende

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Alberschwende54%
×Draw21%
Schruns25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alberschwende
2.13
Schruns
1.40

Alberschwende creates 52% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 31 away

creates per match

Alberschwende
1.85
Schruns
1.35

allows per match

Alberschwende
1.45
Schruns
2.42

finishing

Alberschwende+0.00on par
Schruns+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alberschwende ↓

Schruns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Alberschwende or draw
75%
Alberschwende or Schruns
79%
Draw or Schruns
46%

Winning margin

Alberschwende wins by 2+
32%
Schruns wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Alberschwende 1+ goals
88%
Alberschwende 2+ goals
63%
Alberschwende 3+ goals
35%
Schruns 1+ goals
75%
Schruns 2+ goals
41%
Schruns 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Alberschwende (draw refunded)
68%
Schruns (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alberschwende at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.45 · 71 matches

Schruns away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alberschwende attack 1.85 + Schruns defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.13

Schruns attack 1.35 + Alberschwende defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alberschwende scores more
54%
level
21%
Schruns scores more
25%

Alberschwende at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alberschwende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alberschwende vs Schruns — Match Preview

Alberschwende face Schruns on May 1, 2021 in this Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Alberschwende host Schruns at Sportplatz Alberschwende.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.