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Alberschwende vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Alberschwende
Alberschwende
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
4/19/2025Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 18Sportplatz Alberschwende

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Alberschwende59%
×Draw19%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alberschwende
2.54
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.54

Alberschwende creates 65% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 13 away

creates per match

Alberschwende
1.85
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.62

allows per match

Alberschwende
1.45
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
3.23

finishing

Alberschwende+0.00on par
Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alberschwende ↓

Rot-Weiß Rankweil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Alberschwende or draw
77%
Alberschwende or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
81%
Draw or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
41%

Winning margin

Alberschwende wins by 2+
38%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alberschwende 1+ goals
92%
Alberschwende 2+ goals
72%
Alberschwende 3+ goals
46%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals
79%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals
45%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Alberschwende (draw refunded)
72%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alberschwende at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.45 · 71 matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil away — creates 1.62, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alberschwende attack 1.85 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.54

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.62 + Alberschwende defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Alberschwende scores more
59%
level
19%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more
23%

Alberschwende at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Alberschwende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alberschwende vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil

Alberschwende beat Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Alberschwende in Alberschwende.