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Alberschwende vs Bezau — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Alberschwende
Alberschwende
CANC
00:00
Bezau
Bezau
3/27/2021Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 19Sportplatz Alberschwende

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Alberschwende55%
×Draw21%
Bezau24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alberschwende
2.16
Bezau
1.38

Alberschwende creates 57% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 46 away

creates per match

Alberschwende
1.85
Bezau
1.30

allows per match

Alberschwende
1.45
Bezau
2.46

finishing

Alberschwende+0.00on par
Bezau+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alberschwende ↓

Bezau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Alberschwende or draw
76%
Alberschwende or Bezau
79%
Draw or Bezau
45%

Winning margin

Alberschwende wins by 2+
33%
Bezau wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alberschwende 1+ goals
88%
Alberschwende 2+ goals
63%
Alberschwende 3+ goals
36%
Bezau 1+ goals
75%
Bezau 2+ goals
40%
Bezau 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Alberschwende (draw refunded)
69%
Bezau (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alberschwende at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.45 · 71 matches

Bezau away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alberschwende attack 1.85 + Bezau defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.16

Bezau attack 1.30 + Alberschwende defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alberschwende scores more
55%
level
21%
Bezau scores more
24%

Alberschwende at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alberschwende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alberschwende vs Bezau — Match Preview

Alberschwende face Bezau on March 27, 2021 in this Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Alberschwende host Bezau at Sportplatz Alberschwende.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.