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Alberite vs SD Logroñés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Alberite
Alberite
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
9/29/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 6Estadio Marino Sáenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Alberite11%
×Draw18%
SD Logroñés71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alberite
0.74
SD Logroñés
2.20

SD Logroñés creates 197% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

Alberite
1.15
SD Logroñés
2.33

allows per match

Alberite
2.07
SD Logroñés
0.33

finishing

Alberite+0.00on par
SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alberite ↓

SD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–213%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Alberite or draw
29%
Alberite or SD Logroñés
82%
Draw or SD Logroñés
89%

Winning margin

Alberite wins by 2+
3%
SD Logroñés wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Alberite 1+ goals
52%
Alberite 2+ goals
17%
Alberite 3+ goals
4%
SD Logroñés 1+ goals
89%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
64%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Alberite (draw refunded)
14%
SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alberite at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.07 · 46 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alberite attack 1.15 + SD Logroñés defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.74

SD Logroñés attack 2.33 + Alberite defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Alberite scores more
11%
level
18%
SD Logroñés scores more
71%

SD Logroñés at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Alberite 0–4 SD Logroñés

SD Logroñés beat Alberite 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Marino Sáenz in Alberite.