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Alberite vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Alberite
Alberite
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
River Ebro
River Ebro
10/15/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 6Estadio Marino Sáenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Alberite37%
×Draw24%
River Ebro39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alberite
1.53
River Ebro
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 93 away

creates per match

Alberite
1.15
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

Alberite
2.07
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

Alberite+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alberite ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Alberite or draw
61%
Alberite or River Ebro
76%
Draw or River Ebro
63%

Winning margin

Alberite wins by 2+
18%
River Ebro wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Alberite 1+ goals
78%
Alberite 2+ goals
45%
Alberite 3+ goals
20%
River Ebro 1+ goals
79%
River Ebro 2+ goals
47%
River Ebro 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Alberite (draw refunded)
49%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alberite at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.07 · 46 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alberite attack 1.15 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.53

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Alberite defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alberite scores more
37%
level
24%
River Ebro scores more
39%

River Ebro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "River Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alberite vs River Ebro

River Ebro beat Alberite 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Marino Sáenz in Alberite.