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Alberite vs Racing Rioja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Alberite
Alberite
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
1/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 12Estadio Marino Sáenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Alberite28%
×Draw23%
Racing Rioja49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alberite
1.29
Racing Rioja
1.77

Racing Rioja creates 37% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 30 away

creates per match

Alberite
1.15
Racing Rioja
1.47

allows per match

Alberite
2.07
Racing Rioja
1.43

finishing

Alberite+0.00on par
Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alberite ↓

Racing Rioja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Alberite or draw
51%
Alberite or Racing Rioja
77%
Draw or Racing Rioja
72%

Winning margin

Alberite wins by 2+
12%
Racing Rioja wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Alberite 1+ goals
72%
Alberite 2+ goals
37%
Alberite 3+ goals
14%
Racing Rioja 1+ goals
83%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
53%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Alberite (draw refunded)
37%
Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alberite at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.07 · 46 matches

Racing Rioja away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alberite attack 1.15 + Racing Rioja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Racing Rioja attack 1.47 + Alberite defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alberite scores more
28%
level
23%
Racing Rioja scores more
49%

Racing Rioja at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Racing Rioja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Alberite 1–2 Racing Rioja

Racing Rioja beat Alberite 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Marino Sáenz in Alberite.