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Alberite vs Náxara — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Alberite
Alberite
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Náxara
Náxara
9/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 4Estadio Marino Sáenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Alberite17%
×Draw19%
Náxara63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alberite
1.11
Náxara
2.28

Náxara creates 105% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 59 away

creates per match

Alberite
1.15
Náxara
2.49

allows per match

Alberite
2.07
Náxara
1.07

finishing

Alberite+0.00on par
Náxara+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alberite ↓

Náxara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Alberite or draw
37%
Alberite or Náxara
81%
Draw or Náxara
83%

Winning margin

Alberite wins by 2+
6%
Náxara wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Alberite 1+ goals
67%
Alberite 2+ goals
30%
Alberite 3+ goals
10%
Náxara 1+ goals
90%
Náxara 2+ goals
66%
Náxara 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Alberite (draw refunded)
22%
Náxara (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alberite at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.07 · 46 matches

Náxara away — creates 2.49, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alberite attack 1.15 + Náxara defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Náxara attack 2.49 + Alberite defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Alberite scores more
17%
level
19%
Náxara scores more
63%

Náxara at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alberite vs Náxara

Náxara beat Alberite 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Marino Sáenz in Alberite.