Albergaria W 0–2 Sporting CP W: Result & Stats

Albergaria W

FT

0 – 2

Sporting CP W

5/13/2023

1a Divisão - Women · Round 21Estádio Municipal António Martins Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Albergaria W10%

×Draw16%

Sporting CP W74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albergaria WExpected goals in this matchSporting CP W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

2.42

Albergaria W

0.77

Sporting CP W

2.42

Sporting CP W creates 214% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 42 away

0.97

creates per match

2.74

2.09

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Albergaria W

0.97

Sporting CP W

2.74

allows per match

Albergaria W

2.09

Sporting CP W

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albergaria W+0.00on par

Sporting CP W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albergaria W ↓

Sporting CP W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–110%

0–212%

0–310%

0–46%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Albergaria W or draw

26%

Albergaria W or Sporting CP W

84%

Draw or Sporting CP W

90%

Winning margin

Albergaria W wins by 2+

3%

Sporting CP W wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Albergaria W 1+ goals

54%

Albergaria W 2+ goals

18%

Albergaria W 3+ goals

4%

Sporting CP W 1+ goals

91%

Sporting CP W 2+ goals

69%

Sporting CP W 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Albergaria W (draw refunded)

12%

Sporting CP W (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albergaria W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

Sporting CP W away — creates 2.74, concedes 0.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albergaria W attack 0.97 + Sporting CP W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.77

Sporting CP W attack 2.74 + Albergaria W defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Albergaria W scores more

10%

level

16%

Sporting CP W scores more

74%

Sporting CP W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sporting CP W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff