Albergaria W 0–0 Racing Seixal W: Result & Stats

Albergaria W

FT

0 – 0

Racing Seixal W

4/28/2024

1a Divisão - Women · Round 20Estádio Municipal António Martins Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Albergaria W21%

×Draw23%

Racing Seixal W56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albergaria WExpected goals in this matchRacing Seixal W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.82

Albergaria W

1.03

Racing Seixal W

1.82

Racing Seixal W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

0.97

creates per match

1.55

2.09

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Albergaria W

0.97

Racing Seixal W

1.55

allows per match

Albergaria W

2.09

Racing Seixal W

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albergaria W+0.00on par

Racing Seixal W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albergaria W ↓

Racing Seixal W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Albergaria W or draw

44%

Albergaria W or Racing Seixal W

77%

Draw or Racing Seixal W

79%

Winning margin

Albergaria W wins by 2+

8%

Racing Seixal W wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Albergaria W 1+ goals

64%

Albergaria W 2+ goals

28%

Albergaria W 3+ goals

9%

Racing Seixal W 1+ goals

84%

Racing Seixal W 2+ goals

54%

Racing Seixal W 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Albergaria W (draw refunded)

28%

Racing Seixal W (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albergaria W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

Racing Seixal W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albergaria W attack 0.97 + Racing Seixal W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.03

Racing Seixal W attack 1.55 + Albergaria W defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Albergaria W scores more

21%

level

23%

Racing Seixal W scores more

56%

Racing Seixal W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Racing Seixal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff