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Albany Creek vs WDSC Wolves — Queensland Premier League 2026

Albany Creek
Albany Creek
FT
1 – 2
WDSC Wolves
WDSC Wolves
4/29/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 8Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Albany Creek43%
×Draw23%
WDSC Wolves34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albany Creek
1.79
WDSC Wolves
1.57

Albany Creek creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

Albany Creek
1.64
WDSC Wolves
1.41

allows per match

Albany Creek
1.73
WDSC Wolves
1.95

finishing

Albany Creek+0.00on par
WDSC Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albany Creek ↓

WDSC Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Albany Creek or draw
66%
Albany Creek or WDSC Wolves
77%
Draw or WDSC Wolves
57%

Winning margin

Albany Creek wins by 2+
23%
WDSC Wolves wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Albany Creek 1+ goals
83%
Albany Creek 2+ goals
53%
Albany Creek 3+ goals
26%
WDSC Wolves 1+ goals
79%
WDSC Wolves 2+ goals
46%
WDSC Wolves 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Albany Creek (draw refunded)
56%
WDSC Wolves (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albany Creek at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

WDSC Wolves away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albany Creek attack 1.64 + WDSC Wolves defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

WDSC Wolves attack 1.41 + Albany Creek defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Albany Creek scores more
43%
level
23%
WDSC Wolves scores more
34%

Albany Creek at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Albany Creek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Albany Creek 1–2 WDSC Wolves

WDSC Wolves beat Albany Creek 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Wolter Park in Brisbane.