Albany Creek 5–3 Southside Eagles: Result & Stats

Albany Creek

FT

5 – 3

Southside Eagles

3/19/2023

Queensland Premier League · Round 4Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Albany Creek47%

×Draw22%

Southside Eagles30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albany CreekExpected goals in this matchSouthside Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.50

Albany Creek

1.92

Southside Eagles

1.50

Albany Creek creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 53 away

1.64

creates per match

1.26

1.73

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Albany Creek

1.64

Southside Eagles

1.26

allows per match

Albany Creek

1.73

Southside Eagles

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albany Creek+0.00on par

Southside Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albany Creek ↓

Southside Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Albany Creek or draw

70%

Albany Creek or Southside Eagles

78%

Draw or Southside Eagles

53%

Winning margin

Albany Creek wins by 2+

26%

Southside Eagles wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Albany Creek 1+ goals

85%

Albany Creek 2+ goals

57%

Albany Creek 3+ goals

30%

Southside Eagles 1+ goals

78%

Southside Eagles 2+ goals

44%

Southside Eagles 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Albany Creek (draw refunded)

61%

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albany Creek at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Southside Eagles away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albany Creek attack 1.64 + Southside Eagles defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.92

Southside Eagles attack 1.26 + Albany Creek defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Albany Creek scores more

47%

level

22%

Southside Eagles scores more

30%

Albany Creek at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Albany Creek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff