Albania W 3–0 Faroe Islands W: Result & Stats

Albania W

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Faroe Islands W

2/25/2024

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Tony Bezzina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Albania W46%

×Draw23%

Faroe Islands W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albania WExpected goals in this matchFaroe Islands W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.50

Albania W

1.85

Faroe Islands W

1.50

Albania W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.60

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Albania W

1.60

Faroe Islands W

1.00

allows per match

Albania W

2.00

Faroe Islands W

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albania W+0.00on par

Faroe Islands W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania W ↓

Faroe Islands W →

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Albania W or draw

69%

Albania W or Faroe Islands W

77%

Draw or Faroe Islands W

54%

Winning margin

Albania W wins by 2+

25%

Faroe Islands W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Albania W 1+ goals

84%

Albania W 2+ goals

55%

Albania W 3+ goals

28%

Faroe Islands W 1+ goals

78%

Faroe Islands W 2+ goals

44%

Faroe Islands W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Albania W (draw refunded)

59%

Faroe Islands W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Albania W at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Faroe Islands W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Albania W attack 1.60 + Faroe Islands W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.85

Faroe Islands W attack 1.00 + Albania W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Albania W scores more

46%

level

23%

Faroe Islands W scores more

31%

Albania W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Albania W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff