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Albania vs Türkiye — Euro Championship 2020

Albania
Albania
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Türkiye
Türkiye
3/22/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Stadiumi Loro Boriçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Albania29%
×Draw25%
Türkiye46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albania
1.21
Türkiye
1.57

Türkiye creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Albania
1.33
Türkiye
1.64

allows per match

Albania
1.50
Türkiye
1.09

finishing

Albania+0.00on par
Türkiye+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania ↓

Türkiye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Albania or draw
54%
Albania or Türkiye
75%
Draw or Türkiye
71%

Winning margin

Albania wins by 2+
12%
Türkiye wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Albania 1+ goals
70%
Albania 2+ goals
34%
Albania 3+ goals
12%
Türkiye 1+ goals
79%
Türkiye 2+ goals
46%
Türkiye 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Albania (draw refunded)
39%
Türkiye (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Türkiye away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania attack 1.33 + Türkiye defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Türkiye attack 1.64 + Albania defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Albania scores more
29%
level
25%
Türkiye scores more
46%

Türkiye at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albania vs Türkiye

Türkiye beat Albania 2-0 in Euro Championship on March 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loro Boriçi in Shkodër.