Albania 0–1 Norway: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Albania

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Norway

S. Rosted 70'

3/26/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Albania35%

×Draw26%

Norway39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaniaExpected goals in this matchNorway

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.38

Albania

1.28

Norway

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

1.06

creates per match

1.50

1.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Albania

1.06

Norway

1.50

allows per match

Albania

1.25

Norway

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albania+0.00on par

Norway+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania ↓

Norway →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Albania or draw

61%

Albania or Norway

74%

Draw or Norway

65%

Winning margin

Albania wins by 2+

15%

Norway wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Albania 1+ goals

72%

Albania 2+ goals

37%

Albania 3+ goals

14%

Norway 1+ goals

75%

Norway 2+ goals

40%

Norway 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Albania (draw refunded)

47%

Norway (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Norway away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania attack 1.06 + Norway defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Norway attack 1.50 + Albania defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Albania scores more

35%

level

26%

Norway scores more

39%

Norway at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

K. Bare← K. Qaka

46'

B. Balaj← O. Roshi

46'

O. Elabdellaoui← J. Svensson

63'

S. Rosted← H. Nordtveit

65'

A. Lila← A. Sadiku

65'

B. Lika← E. Hysaj

70'

S. Rosted↳ M. Elyounoussi

74'

I. Fossum← M. Ødegaard

75'

Stefan Johansen

78'

O. Selnæs← S. Johansen

83'

Mërgim Mavraj

90+4'

M. Dæhli← M. Elyounoussi

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AlbaniaNorway

Overview

52%Possession48%

5Total Shots11

5Corners5

11Fouls24

Shots

5Total Shots11

0On Target4

5Off Target7

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls24

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0