Albania 0–1 Lithuania: Result & Stats

Albania

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lithuania

Donatas Kazlauskas 50'

9/7/2020

UEFA Nations League · League C - 2Air Albania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Albania51%

×Draw27%

Lithuania22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaniaExpected goals in this matchLithuania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.86

Albania

1.44

Lithuania

0.86

Albania creates 67% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.11

creates per match

0.62

1.11

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Albania

1.11

Lithuania

0.62

allows per match

Albania

1.11

Lithuania

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albania+0.00on par

Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania ↓

Lithuania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Albania or draw

78%

Albania or Lithuania

73%

Draw or Lithuania

49%

Winning margin

Albania wins by 2+

25%

Lithuania wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Albania 1+ goals

76%

Albania 2+ goals

42%

Albania 3+ goals

18%

Lithuania 1+ goals

58%

Lithuania 2+ goals

21%

Lithuania 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Albania (draw refunded)

69%

Lithuania (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania attack 1.11 + Lithuania defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lithuania attack 0.62 + Albania defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Albania scores more

51%

level

27%

Lithuania scores more

22%

Albania at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Albania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Edvinas Girdvainis

Lithuania · D

7.5

Match Events

45+3'

45+1'

45+3'

50'

55'

61'

Odise Roshi← Lorenc Trashi

61'

Myrto Uzuni← Klaus Gjasula

61'

Gratas Sirgėdas← Justas Lasickas

65'

Modestas Vorobjovas

74'

Armando Broja← Odise Roshi

75'

Ovidijus Verbickas← Donatas Kazlauskas

78'

Daniel Romanovskij← Karolis Laukžemis

87'

Elseid Hysaj

87'

Elseid Hysaj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaniaLithuania

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots8

6Corners3

14Fouls20

Shots

9Total Shots8

1On Target4

2Off Target2

6Blocked2

5Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

468Total Passes359

376Accurate Passes268

80%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls20

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides4