Albania 3–0 Liechtenstein: Result & Stats

Albania

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Liechtenstein

E. Muçi 67'

J. Asani 47'

A. Broja 31'

6/3/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Haladás Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Albania61%

×Draw23%

Liechtenstein17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaniaExpected goals in this matchLiechtenstein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.83

Albania

1.82

Liechtenstein

0.83

Albania creates 119% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

1.06

creates per match

0.42

1.25

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Albania

1.06

Liechtenstein

0.42

allows per match

Albania

1.25

Liechtenstein

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albania+0.00on par

Liechtenstein+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania ↓

Liechtenstein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Albania or draw

83%

Albania or Liechtenstein

77%

Draw or Liechtenstein

39%

Winning margin

Albania wins by 2+

35%

Liechtenstein wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Albania 1+ goals

84%

Albania 2+ goals

54%

Albania 3+ goals

27%

Liechtenstein 1+ goals

56%

Liechtenstein 2+ goals

20%

Liechtenstein 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Albania (draw refunded)

78%

Liechtenstein (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Liechtenstein away — creates 0.42, concedes 2.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania attack 1.06 + Liechtenstein defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.82

Liechtenstein attack 0.42 + Albania defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Albania scores more

61%

level

23%

Liechtenstein scores more

17%

Albania at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Albania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

46'

46'

46'

46'

46'

47'

53'

58'

62'

62'

M. Kumbulla← A. Ajeti

67'

70'

76'

77'

81'

L. Kranz← A. Sele

86'

F. Oberwaditzer← K. Kindle

89'

A. Hasler← M. Büchel

Shots

Statistics

AlbaniaLiechtenstein

Overview

14Total Shots0

7Corners0

9Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots0

6On Target0

4Off Target0

4Blocked0

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0