Albania 3–1 Kazakhstan: Result & Stats

Albania

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Kazakhstan

Rey Manaj 62' (pen)

Ardian Ismajli 23'

Sokol Cikalleshi 16'

Aibol Abiken 24'

11/15/2020

UEFA Nations League · League C - 5Air Albania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Albania56%

×Draw24%

Kazakhstan20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaniaExpected goals in this matchKazakhstan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.91

Albania

1.71

Kazakhstan

0.91

Albania creates 88% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.11

creates per match

0.70

1.11

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Albania

1.11

Kazakhstan

0.70

allows per match

Albania

1.11

Kazakhstan

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albania+0.00on par

Kazakhstan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania ↓

Kazakhstan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Albania or draw

80%

Albania or Kazakhstan

76%

Draw or Kazakhstan

44%

Winning margin

Albania wins by 2+

31%

Kazakhstan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Albania 1+ goals

82%

Albania 2+ goals

51%

Albania 3+ goals

24%

Kazakhstan 1+ goals

60%

Kazakhstan 2+ goals

23%

Kazakhstan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Albania (draw refunded)

74%

Kazakhstan (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Kazakhstan away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania attack 1.11 + Kazakhstan defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kazakhstan attack 0.70 + Albania defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Albania scores more

56%

level

24%

Kazakhstan scores more

20%

Albania at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Albania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Rey Manaj

Albania · F

8.2

Match Events

1'

Olzhas Kerimzhanov

16'

Sokol Cikalleshi↳ Ledian Memushaj

23'

Ardian Ismajli

24'

Aibol Abiken↳ Abat Aimbetov

30'

Amir Abrashi

33'

Nuraly Alip

46'

Maksim Fedin← Olzhas Kerimzhanov

46'

Askhat Tagybergen← Aibol Abiken

53'

Klaus Gjasula← Sherif Kallaku

62'

Rey ManajPenalty

62'

Aleksandr Marochkin

68'

Albi Doka← Myrto Uzuni

70'

Gafurzhan Suyumbaev

71'

Sergey Khizhnichenko← Abat Aimbetov

71'

Marat Bystrov← Gafurzhan Suyumbaev

86'

Taulant Seferi← Sokol Cikalleshi

86'

Bekim Balaj← Rey Manaj

87'

Lindon Selahi← Ledian Memushaj

87'

Aslan Darabaev← Islambek Kuat

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaniaKazakhstan

Overview

60%Possession40%

18Total Shots12

5Corners6

11Fouls22

Shots

18Total Shots12

11On Target5

4Off Target3

3Blocked4

12Inside Box5

6Outside Box7

Passing

60%Possession40%

572Total Passes368

487Accurate Passes276

85%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls22

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1