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Albania vs Italy — Friendlies 2026

Albania
Albania
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Italy
Italy
A. Ismajli 16'
V. Grifo 64', 25'
G. Di Lorenzo 20'
11/16/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Air Albania Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Albania33%
×Draw27%
Italy40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albania
1.14
Italy
1.29

Italy creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Albania
1.06
Italy
1.33

allows per match

Albania
1.25
Italy
1.22

finishing

Albania+0.00on par
Italy+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania ↓

Italy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Albania or draw
60%
Albania or Italy
73%
Draw or Italy
67%

Winning margin

Albania wins by 2+
13%
Italy wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Albania 1+ goals
68%
Albania 2+ goals
32%
Albania 3+ goals
11%
Italy 1+ goals
72%
Italy 2+ goals
37%
Italy 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Albania (draw refunded)
45%
Italy (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Italy away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania attack 1.06 + Italy defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Italy attack 1.33 + Albania defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Albania scores more
33%
level
27%
Italy scores more
40%

Italy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Italy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
V. GrifoItalyItaly · F
9.2

Match Events

16'
A. Ismajli↳ N. Bajrami
20'
G. Di Lorenzo↳ V. Grifo
25'
V. Grifo↳ G. Raspadori
45+4'
M. Kumbulla
45+2'
S. Ricci← S. Tonali
51'
O. Roshi← A. Broja
61'
K. Bare
61'
M. Verratti
64'
V. Grifo
65'
O. Roshi
71'
K. Asllani← N. Bajrami
71'
A. Bajrami← A. Ismajli
77'
Y. Ramadani← A. Abrashi
77'
N. Fagioli← N. Zaniolo
77'
W. Gnonto← V. Grifo
87'
Q. Laçi← K. Bare
88'
X. Skuka← M. Uzuni
90'
S. Pafundi← M. Verratti
90+1'
A. Pinamonti← L. Bonucci
90'
F. Chiesa← G. Raspadori

Possession

33%Albania

Shots

14Albania

Pass accuracy

46%Albania

Statistics

AlbaniaItaly
Overview
33%Possession67%
14Total Shots12
3Corners3
18Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots12
5On Target5
6Off Target5
3Blocked2
8Inside Box9
6Outside Box3
Passing
33%Possession67%
259Total Passes551
186Accurate Passes474
72%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls17
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Friendlies: Albania 1–3 Italy

Italy beat Albania 3-1 in Friendlies on November 16, 2022.

Goals: A. Ismajli (16'), G. Di Lorenzo (20'), V. Grifo (25', 64').

Italy controlled possession (67%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Air Albania Stadium in Tirana.