Albania 1–0 Israel: Result & Stats

Albania

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Israel

Taulant Xhaka 55'

9/7/2018

UEFA Nations League · League C - 1Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Albania44%

×Draw25%

Israel31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaniaExpected goals in this matchIsrael

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.22

Albania

1.50

Israel

1.22

Albania creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.11

creates per match

1.33

1.11

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Albania

1.11

Israel

1.33

allows per match

Albania

1.11

Israel

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albania+0.00on par

Israel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania ↓

Israel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Albania or draw

69%

Albania or Israel

75%

Draw or Israel

56%

Winning margin

Albania wins by 2+

21%

Israel wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Albania 1+ goals

78%

Albania 2+ goals

44%

Albania 3+ goals

19%

Israel 1+ goals

70%

Israel 2+ goals

34%

Israel 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Albania (draw refunded)

59%

Israel (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Israel away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania attack 1.11 + Israel defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.50

Israel attack 1.33 + Albania defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Albania scores more

44%

level

25%

Israel scores more

31%

Albania at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Albania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Migjen Basha

25'

Ayad Habashi

46'

Bekim Balaj← Sindrit Guri

47'

Tomer Hemed← Eran Zahavi

55'

Taulant Xhaka↳ Jahmir Hyka

71'

Enis Gavazaj← Enis Gavazaj

72'

Manor Solomon← Beram Kayal

80'

Dor Micha← Nisso Kapiloto

82'

Elseid Hysaj

84'

Mërgim Mavraj← Frédéric Veseli

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AlbaniaIsrael

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots12

5Corners5

12Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots12

5On Target6

4Off Target6

Passing

46%Possession54%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4