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Albania vs Azerbaijan — Friendlies 2026

Albania
Albania
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan
Q. Laçi 88'
R. Manaj 81'
N. Bajrami 12'
M. Qurbanlı 90'
6/7/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Haladás Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Albania36%
×Draw27%
Azerbaijan37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albania
1.22
Azerbaijan
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

creates per match

Albania
1.06
Azerbaijan
1.23

allows per match

Albania
1.25
Azerbaijan
1.38

finishing

Albania+0.00on par
Azerbaijan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania ↓

Azerbaijan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Albania or draw
63%
Albania or Azerbaijan
73%
Draw or Azerbaijan
64%

Winning margin

Albania wins by 2+
15%
Azerbaijan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Albania 1+ goals
70%
Albania 2+ goals
34%
Albania 3+ goals
12%
Azerbaijan 1+ goals
71%
Azerbaijan 2+ goals
35%
Azerbaijan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Albania (draw refunded)
49%
Azerbaijan (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Azerbaijan away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania attack 1.06 + Azerbaijan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Azerbaijan attack 1.23 + Albania defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Albania scores more
36%
level
27%
Azerbaijan scores more
37%

Azerbaijan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Azerbaijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
N. Bajrami
46'
E. Mihaj← B. Djimsiti
46'
N. Aliji← M. Mitaj
46'
A. Hoxha← J. Asani
46'
R. Manaj← A. Broja
46'
Q. Alıyev← R. Məmmədov
46'
E. Camalov← C. Diniyev
61'
Q. Laçi← T. Seferi
63'
V. İsgəndərli← T. Bayramov
69'
E. Mustafaev← E. Mahmudov
69'
C. Nurıyev← R. Şeydayev
73'
Emil Mustafaiev
77'
A. Ismajli← A. Ajeti
77'
M. Qurbanlı← M. Emreli
81'
R. Manaj
88'
Q. Laçi
90'
M. Qurbanlı

Possession

40%Albania

Shots

11Albania

Statistics

AlbaniaAzerbaijan
Overview
40%Possession60%
11Total Shots9
4Corners3
5Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots9
5On Target3
4Off Target4
2Blocked2
Passing
40%Possession60%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Albania vs Azerbaijan

Albania beat Azerbaijan 3-1 in Friendlies on June 7, 2024.

Goals: N. Bajrami (12'), R. Manaj (81'), Q. Laçi (88'), M. Qurbanlı (90').

Azerbaijan controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Haladás Stadion in Szombathely.