Albania U21 vs Ukraine U21 — Friendlies 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Albania U2172%
Ukraine U2110%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Albania U21 creates 230% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Albania U21 ↓
Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Albania U21 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches
Ukraine U21 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Albania U21 attack 1.75 + Ukraine U21 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.21
Ukraine U21 attack 0.33 + Albania U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 72%?"
Albania U21 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 72% does not mean "Albania U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Ukraine U21 substitutes
Head to Head
Albania U21 host Ukraine U21 on Monday, 17 November 2025 at 17:00. The match is part of the Friendlies 2024/2025 season.
Match Recap: Albania U21 vs Ukraine U21
Albania U21 beat Ukraine U21 2-0 in Friendlies on November 17, 2025.
Goals: E. Rashica (39'), G. Kote (90').
The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasani.