Albania U19 0–1 Slovenia U19: Result & Stats

Albania U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slovenia U19

11/21/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Albania U1949%

×Draw24%

Slovenia U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albania U19Expected goals in this matchSlovenia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.25

Albania U19

1.75

Slovenia U19

1.25

Albania U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

1.86

creates per match

1.06

1.43

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Albania U19

1.86

Slovenia U19

1.06

allows per match

Albania U19

1.43

Slovenia U19

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albania U19+0.00on par

Slovenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania U19 ↓

Slovenia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Albania U19 or draw

73%

Albania U19 or Slovenia U19

76%

Draw or Slovenia U19

51%

Winning margin

Albania U19 wins by 2+

27%

Slovenia U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Albania U19 1+ goals

83%

Albania U19 2+ goals

52%

Albania U19 3+ goals

25%

Slovenia U19 1+ goals

71%

Slovenia U19 2+ goals

36%

Slovenia U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Albania U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Slovenia U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania U19 attack 1.86 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.75

Slovenia U19 attack 1.06 + Albania U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Albania U19 scores more

49%

level

24%

Slovenia U19 scores more

27%

Albania U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Albania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff