Albania U19 0–1 Northern Ireland U19

Albania U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Northern Ireland U19

B. Graham 88'

11/19/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Albania U1945%

×Draw27%

Northern Ireland U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albania U19Expected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.05

Albania U19

1.39

Northern Ireland U19

1.05

Albania U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.86

creates per match

0.67

1.43

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Albania U19

1.86

Northern Ireland U19

0.67

allows per match

Albania U19

1.43

Northern Ireland U19

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albania U19+0.00on par

Northern Ireland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania U19 ↓

Northern Ireland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Albania U19 or draw

72%

Albania U19 or Northern Ireland U19

73%

Draw or Northern Ireland U19

55%

Winning margin

Albania U19 wins by 2+

21%

Northern Ireland U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Albania U19 1+ goals

75%

Albania U19 2+ goals

40%

Albania U19 3+ goals

16%

Northern Ireland U19 1+ goals

65%

Northern Ireland U19 2+ goals

28%

Northern Ireland U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Albania U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Northern Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Northern Ireland U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania U19 attack 1.86 + Northern Ireland U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.39

Northern Ireland U19 attack 0.67 + Albania U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Albania U19 scores more

45%

level

27%

Northern Ireland U19 scores more

28%

Albania U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Albania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

F. Perndreca

46'

A. Dervishaj← A. Taho

46'

K. Kashari← J. Jaku

46'

B. Graham← R. Corrigan

52'

A. Dama

56'

F. Tosku

62'

G. Belloj← D. Vraniçi

63'

C. Brannigan← Jack Doherty

75'

C. Haughey

76'

R. Hasani← F. Tosku

82'

E. Bakiu← A. Kurti

82'

B. McClure← P. McGovern

88'

B. Graham

90+1'

B. Graham

Albania

Northern

1

5

2

14

15

6

▼

10

7

16

19

▼

McGovern

18

▼

Corrigan

12

▼

Taho

4

▼

3

5

14

6

▼

Jaku

18

Arifi

8

▼

Vraniçi

15

Marinaj

10

▼

Tosku

11

Nuredini

Manager: J. Ahmati

46'▲A. Dervishaj←▼A. Taho

46'▲K. Kashari←▼J. Jaku

62'▲G. Belloj←▼D. Vraniçi

76'▲R. Hasani←▼F. Tosku

82'▲E. Bakiu←▼A. Kurti

Albania U19 substitutes

1Dervishaj17Kashari16Belloj7Hasani13Bakiu9Sulejmani19Marinaj

Manager: G. McAuley

46'▲B. Graham←▼R. Corrigan

63'▲C. Brannigan←▼Jack Doherty

82'▲B. McClure←▼P. McGovern

Northern Ireland U19 substitutes

9Graham11Brannigan8McClure20Doherty12Metcalf17Stitt3Hawthorne

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Albania U19 0–1 Northern Ireland U19

Northern Ireland U19 beat Albania U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 19, 2024.

Goals: B. Graham (88').

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.

Albania U19 vs Northern Ireland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Albania U19 0–1 Northern Ireland U19